Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 20.474163 23.815097 27.818913 33.059483 39.876953 48.654633 61.183074
2025-02-09 15.846755 19.540952 24.390649 31.467344 41.996083 57.976663 86.230070
2025-02-16 14.048816 18.052971 23.669170 32.578814 47.386989 73.460928 130.855542
2025-02-23 12.495985 16.521284 22.436722 32.416395 50.495657 86.561860 184.340250
2025-03-02 11.319151 15.306939 21.391526 32.195656 53.293866 100.574691 260.182908
2025-03-09 10.513943 14.514723 20.835537 32.621417 57.423014 120.334230 398.006196
2025-03-16 9.561350 13.371613 19.525788 31.370630 57.579758 130.198933 529.363217
2025-03-23 8.953238 12.702841 18.911035 31.301737 60.393354 150.388924 830.599181
2025-03-30 8.203355 11.730571 17.650524 29.707659 58.993264 155.794288 1070.374385
2025-04-06 7.510548 10.796842 16.363484 27.859189 56.447629 155.544622 1275.625780
2025-04-13 6.960014 10.060506 15.363058 26.473879 54.807877 158.268140 1614.189720
2025-04-20 7.125614 10.538703 16.616876 30.177278 68.874365 250.940981 15152.545252
2025-04-27 6.975481 10.478577 16.893296 31.856394 78.315658 349.833386 NaN
2025-05-04 6.495785 9.799995 15.897550 30.300916 76.134713 362.961228 NaN
2025-05-11 6.322700 9.656166 15.945525 31.354444 84.115673 495.939111 NaN
2025-05-18 6.052669 9.314248 15.553925 31.200754 87.426024 603.442089 NaN
2025-05-25 5.802281 8.990517 15.167334 30.991984 90.512552 736.600731 NaN
2025-06-01 5.623399 8.787089 15.012483 31.394636 96.741851 1000.130441 NaN
2025-06-08 5.334365 8.358019 14.337771 30.211349 94.780251 1069.673015 NaN
2025-06-15 5.152524 8.122317 14.062338 30.146140 98.599077 1388.985336 NaN
2025-06-22 4.877206 7.693355 13.332954 28.636283 94.093628 1360.795659 NaN
2025-06-29 4.599969 7.249766 12.547680 26.882987 87.797407 1226.623911 NaN
2025-07-06 4.369954 6.888676 11.926467 25.567195 83.621333 1177.881367 NaN